Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Modelling Data - Example using A-level Physics Gender Trends

Love this blog post: "Brent and Levenberg-Marquardt: the bread and butter algorithms for postgrads" which uses data I collected as an example for modelling trends.
I collected these data to include in an article I was invited to write for Astronomy&Geophysics on "Women of the future in the RAS". In that article I conclude: "Fitting a straight line to this 60-year trend and dangerously extrapolating the poor linear fit into the future, we find that we can't expect gender equality in physics A-level until 2163."

The data is not cheerful, and a linear increase model does not fit it well. In fact according 's best fit model, recent years show a decline in the fraction of A-level physicsists who are women. 
Credit to Val Aslanyan (http://improbablematter.blogspot.com/2016/12/brent-and-levenberg-marquardt-bread-and.html) for this version of this plot.

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